UCL qualification: the best & worst ‘alternative’ scenarios

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Last night’s 2-2 draw between the Chavs and the Spuds means for the first time in quite a while all three contenders for the last two remaining Champions League spots have played the same number of games (36).

If you’re anything like Arseblog News you’ll no doubt have spent much of the last few weeks staring wild-eyed at the Premier League table, frantically mouse-clicking between fixture listings and scratching your head over the various permutations.

The good news is that our fate is vert much back in our own hands – if Arsenal win their two remaining fixtures against Wigan and Newcastle they’ll finish at least 4th.

Of course, football being football, anything could happen so here’s a simplified run down of the best and worst outcomes based on if we don’t take maximum points.

[It’s a slow news day…]

If Arsenal take 4 points…

Max total points: 71

Best outcome: 3rd
How: Chelsea get 2pts maximum. Spurs get 4pts maximum and don’t recover goal difference. Arsenal enjoy +3 goal difference swing with Chelsea due to ‘big’ win.

Worst outcome: 5th
How: Chelsea get 2pts minimum and goal difference remains in their favour or secure 3pts.  Spurs secure 6pts.

If Arsenal take 3 points…

Max total points: 70

Best outcome: 3rd
How: Chelsea get 1pt. Spurs get 3pts maximum. Arsenal enjoy +3 goal difference swing over Chelsea.

Worst outcome: 5th
How: Chelsea get minimum 1pt and maintain current GD over Arsenal. Spurs get 6pts or alternatively seal 4pts and enjoy a very unlikely +13 goal difference swing on Arsenal.

If Arsenal take 2 points…

Max total points: 69

Best outcome: 3rd
How: Chelsea lose both games and surrender +3 goal difference. Spurs take maximum of 3 pts and don’t recover goal difference.

Worst outcome: 5th
How: Chelsea take minimum 1 pt. Spurs either take 3pts and recover GD with big wins or take 4pts or more.

If Arsenal take 1 point…

Max total points: 68

Best outcome: 4th
How: Chelsea are 2pts ahead so can’t be caught. Spurs take maximum 2pt.

Worst outcome: 5th
How: Chelsea get minimum 1pt. Spurs get 3pts or 2pts & Arsenal suffer unlikely defeat which wipes out +13 goal difference.

If Arsenal take 0 points…

Max total points: 67

Best: 4th
How: Chelsea can afford to lose both games. Spurs secure maximum 1pt.

Worst: 5th
How: Chelsea can lose both games. Spurs take 2pts maximum.

____

Let’s hope the above has merely been a wasted couple of hours and that we don’t need to refer to it. Two wins please Arsene, then we can spend the summer saving for hair implants…

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