UCL qualification: the best & worst ‘alternative’ scenarios


Last night’s 2-2 draw between the Chavs and the Spuds means for the first time in quite a while all three contenders for the last two remaining Champions League spots have played the same number of games (36).

If you’re anything like Arseblog News you’ll no doubt have spent much of the last few weeks staring wild-eyed at the Premier League table, frantically mouse-clicking between fixture listings and scratching your head over the various permutations.

The good news is that our fate is vert much back in our own hands – if Arsenal win their two remaining fixtures against Wigan and Newcastle they’ll finish at least 4th.

Of course, football being football, anything could happen so here’s a simplified run down of the best and worst outcomes based on if we don’t take maximum points.

[It’s a slow news day…]

If Arsenal take 4 points…

Max total points: 71

Best outcome: 3rd
How: Chelsea get 2pts maximum. Spurs get 4pts maximum and don’t recover goal difference. Arsenal enjoy +3 goal difference swing with Chelsea due to ‘big’ win.

Worst outcome: 5th
How: Chelsea get 2pts minimum and goal difference remains in their favour or secure 3pts.  Spurs secure 6pts.

If Arsenal take 3 points…

Max total points: 70

Best outcome: 3rd
How: Chelsea get 1pt. Spurs get 3pts maximum. Arsenal enjoy +3 goal difference swing over Chelsea.

Worst outcome: 5th
How: Chelsea get minimum 1pt and maintain current GD over Arsenal. Spurs get 6pts or alternatively seal 4pts and enjoy a very unlikely +13 goal difference swing on Arsenal.

If Arsenal take 2 points…

Max total points: 69

Best outcome: 3rd
How: Chelsea lose both games and surrender +3 goal difference. Spurs take maximum of 3 pts and don’t recover goal difference.

Worst outcome: 5th
How: Chelsea take minimum 1 pt. Spurs either take 3pts and recover GD with big wins or take 4pts or more.

If Arsenal take 1 point…

Max total points: 68

Best outcome: 4th
How: Chelsea are 2pts ahead so can’t be caught. Spurs take maximum 2pt.

Worst outcome: 5th
How: Chelsea get minimum 1pt. Spurs get 3pts or 2pts & Arsenal suffer unlikely defeat which wipes out +13 goal difference.

If Arsenal take 0 points…

Max total points: 67

Best: 4th
How: Chelsea can afford to lose both games. Spurs secure maximum 1pt.

Worst: 5th
How: Chelsea can lose both games. Spurs take 2pts maximum.


Let’s hope the above has merely been a wasted couple of hours and that we don’t need to refer to it. Two wins please Arsene, then we can spend the summer saving for hair implants…


  1. I reckon we’ll get 4th. If Chelsea drop points against Villa we’ll likely crack under pressure and draw the game with Newcastle. Spurs will stay 5th, Stoke will probably hold them to a draw and Arsenal will be Wigan, effectively ending Spurs’ chances due to goal difference.

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    • We could relegate Wigan if we beat them and Sunderland, Newcastle and Norwich get at least a point on the weekend.
      Martinez should jump ship to Everton now (well as soon as it’s possible) then he can say he didn’t get them relegated.

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    • Crunch time is NOW: for the Wigan game, I request nothing less than 100% passion and full commitment from the whole club. Everybody should know by now what really is at stake here. Newcastle away might be a very tricky one, they’re playing for PL football next season.

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      • No they aren’t. If we beat Wigan, Wigan get relegated and Newcastle are safe(if they get at least a point at QPR) and playing for nothing the following week.

        I think the Wigan game is the tricky one. They always find a way to survive, and that would mean a result against us this year.

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      • Beating Wigan is not only good for our sake, it is also going to make our game with Newcastle a lot easier. Because if we beat Wigan and Newcastle took a point of QPR, they will be safe and they will be thinking of their holidays while playing us.

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    • We play Wigan next and Newcastle on the last day so if there is to be any pressure on us depending on the outcome of the Chelsea/Villa game it would be when we play Wigan at home. However Wigan need a win and so won’t have the luxury of sitting back and so that would be quite beneficial to us.

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      • Well if Norwich and Newcastle both pick up 1 point at the weekend then Wigan will already be relegated so both Wigan and Newcastle will have nothing to play for. Which could either be a positive or negative depending on both teams attitude.

        As far as Wigan goes if they loose the final and get relegated the next day I think we will steam roll them.

        Newcastle on the other hand will be difficult either way. If they are already safe we will probably see a similar effect as we did in the qpr game. If they aren’t safe they will be up for a fight.

        All this is irrelevant as long as we play with commitment and desire(and Mike Dean isn’t ref).

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  2. Tuesday’s game is gonna be so tough.

    Also, even is Spurs drop points to Stoke before we play, I hope we don’t dust off the dreaded handbrake for our remaining fixtures. It’s still likely that Chelsea could drop points and third would be sweet.

    Does anyone know the likely teams we could face for the champs league qualifying were we to take fourth spot?

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    • Ok, I just checked. Currently, the 4th place EPL team could face any of the following teams at the start of next season for qualification into the CL:

      Real Sociedad or Valencia
      Pacos de Ferreira
      AC Milan
      (more that havn’t been decided yet)

      None of those games are easy, and I think we’d probably want to avoid them at the start of next season, but with a successful summer we should be favourites in all of these fixtures.
      Obviously Schalke gave us a hard time this season but we were in a bad place when we played them.
      Milan might be tricky though..

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      • Ah, my mistake. We’d probably be seeded and wouldn’t have to face Milan or Schalke (who would probably also be seeded).

        I guess fourth spot isn’t the end of the world.

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        • Beating someone in the knockout round would serve to be a good European warmup for the real group stage.

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    • Let’s not forget that Wigan are in the cup final on Saturday evening so we will be well rested by comparison.

      Also consider the psychological impacts of the FA Cup for Wigan… win and could suffer a bout of ‘Swansea Syndrome’, lose and they’ll be physically drained and mentally defeated. Personally I’m hoping for extra time too.

      In conclusion, I’m predicting a strong home win. You heard it here first.

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      • If we could win by 3 or 4 that would be fantastic, as it’s quite possible we could miss out on third because of our GD compared to Chelsea.

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      • It’s not the same situation at all. Swansea have been so shite since winning the Capital One Cup because they had nothing left to play for. They were safely midtable and with a place in Europe. Wigan, however, have to fight tooth and nail to stay in the premiership.

        I’m sure we’ll win anyways though, it’s not like we’ve lost against a near-relegation Wigan near the end of the season recently, right? ahah. *knocks on wood*

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    • That’s something we can worry about later, 4th spot would do for me right now. Up the ARSENAL!

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    • Heck, if Swansea can go to Wigan and get all 3 points, I say we are more than capable of getting all 3 points in our own home. Plus, they will be playing Man City on Saturday for the FA Cup Final. It won’t be easy for them to travel to Wembley and then come to our place. Of course, we must stay sharp in all aspects of football when we play Wigan, but this is a game we can and should win.

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  3. errr…if Arsenal take 1 point, we cannot get 3rd, as we’re behind Chelsea on points as it stands. Goal difference has nothing to do with our standing respective to Chelsea if we only take 1 point.

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  4. I had said I thought 70 PTA would be enough for 4th. But, over the last 8 matches or so, Arsenal and Spuds have been getting better results compared to the reverse fixtures. I think we’ll nerd all 6 more points now.

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  5. I had said I thought 70 PTA would be enough for 4th. But, over the last 8 matches or so, Arsenal and Spuds have been getting better results compared to the reverse fixtures. I think we’ll need all 6 more points now.

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  6. Remember Arsenal 1 Hull 2. If the gunners aint clinical they could be in for a rude shock from Wigan.

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      • Just like wigan are fighting against relegation we too are FIGHTING to be in the top four. Both teams are in a battle albeit of different priorities. I’m sure the players from both teams know how important this game is and it’s sure to be a cracker but at the end of the day ARSENAL will come out on top.

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        • To us, not qualifying for the Champions League is akin to being relegated from the Premier League. The financial consequences are similar.

          Wigan and Newcastle may be “up for it”, but so will we!

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      • Only reason they beat us at home last year was Moses. He was an absolute beast that night. I thought it was one of the standout performances of any player all season.

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      • I hate playing Wigan. It’s always them that we used to collapse to. I’m still pissed off when I think about the game at the DW a couple of years ago where we went ahead through Sylvestre (yuck) and then, thinking it would all be so easy, just imploded.

        We simply can’t afford to underestimate anyone in the Premier League, especially teams who are fighting for survival right at the death. The attitude has to be right. There’s a lot of hard work to be done.

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      • Yes and that it still hurts specially because the game finished within the first 10 or so minutes.

        However, if we can beat bayern away after 10 days of rest, then we can beat Wigan at home too.

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    • Lets hope that the next few days will be a very mixed week for Wigan in which they win the FA Cup and then get relegated by us

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    • Not to mention Wigan have scored the most goals from corners in the league, behind only Man Utd. We probably have the best defensive record from open play, but set pieces? Yeah, and that too without Giroud. Need to be at our best. We play like how we’ve played against QPR & Fulham, we’ll get punished.

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  7. Fuck this for a game of soldiers. Just get the 6pts.

    Will need a thorough hose down once this season’s over.

    Wanting the Chavs to win first and then the Orcs on Saturday is making me feel dirtier than a tramp’s ringpiece.

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  8. I wanna get it out there that although Newcastle and Wigan have ‘everything to play for’ so do we. They’re in a relegation battle for a reason and it’s a pretty simple one; our eleven men and much better than average 11 men. I’m expecting at least 4 points.

    If anything Chelsea have the worst run in with Everton and and Villa deciding they can actually play a game of kick the ball.


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    • chelsea’s everton game may be a walkover for them now, with moyes leaving

      i think that chelsea will get 3rd, even if its only on goal difference

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  9. Blogs love the main the main page today ….. you hit the nail on the head when it comes to Alex ferguson very poetic compaired to what a few of us thought of him and his man utd sides 🙂

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  10. Does anyone know if jack took the bet with defoe after the game in whl they went a good few points clear of us. And defoe picked this as his time to bet with jack. Was the bet taken ?

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      • I don’t know if Wilshere took it on but I doubt it. The funny thing is Defoe made the bet just after Spu*s beat us 2-1. They were 7 points clear.

        Real balls that. And what’s funnier? They royally cocked it up again.

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        • They had the bet last year and they were clear defoe was laughing on soccer am about how jack will be paying up soon. They chocked jack won… its was a low life bet to look for this year. And the timing is the wordt part fair enough if he had balls to ask for bet at the start of season but to wait till final run in and 7 points clear… sums the cunt up really.

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        • Was it a straight bet? The odds were quite against us at the time. Surely they should have be accounting for that, and Defoe should be paying a real lump-some to charity if Arsenal were to finish above. Hmm, you figure it were the magical wishes of orphans in need that have pushed us beyond the scum.

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  11. The best scenario would have been 10 red cards and 10 long term injuries in the chelsea/sp*rs match but I guess that didn’t happen so we just have to stick to the formality/probabilities of numbers….shame.

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      • and then perhaps each team getting a points deduction for enciting violence amongst the supporters or something like that?

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  12. I’ll make it easy on you.

    If we win both our games we’re fine.

    As for Chelsea and Sp*rs – just keep wishing them unwell. The more points they drop the brighter our prospects become.

    Who knows … Villa could trounce Chelsea and Stoke break Sp*rs hearts before we play again.

    One game at a time, eh?

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  13. Looking at the fixture list at begining of this season I thought that final day could be a pretty tough. Of course it was all based on Newcasatle’s form last season and I was expecting it to be a-winner-plays-champions league showdown.
    Even few weeks back I thought this over and smiled to myself thinking that Newcastle might be relegated by 19th. Now I just hope that Newcastle wins this weekend and gets to safety before 19th. Funny how things change from week to week.

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  14. moyes will want to show he’s a good manager and his players will be busting a gut to go with him so i’d not be at all surprised to seem them win their game against the chavs

    villa are just insanely unpredictable but could beat the chavs too, they’ll certainly be motivated after the shitkicking they took at the bridge

    pulis will run on and score an own goal if it looks like the orcs are getting anything against spuds, such is his hate for the arsenal. at least that’s what i think.

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    • Fuck I thought Stoke were close to the relegation spots but they’re on 41 so I’m expecting them to just roll over and hand Spurs the 3 points.

      They also have ex-Spurs Crouch who’ll probably miss a penalty on purpose if they are awarded one just like Teddy Sheringham did for West Ham against Spurs back in 2006.

      Fortunately ex-Gunner Benayoun scored the winning goal that day to send Spurs into fifth place. Fuck, what a day that was.

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      • Mathematically, Stoke can still end the season anywhere between 9th and 17th. The difference in prize money between those final positions is 6.000.000 Pounds.

        I’d say Stoke still have a lot to fight for …

        (Not saying I didn’t enjoy your antics – thumbs up!)

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    • Although it could be the last Orcs home game for the Twat in the Hat.

      Nah, you’re probably right. We hate him, he hates us.

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  15. We really should win the next two games against:
    – Wigan who just lost at home to Swansea, a team that has fuck all to play for
    – Newcastle who just lost 6-0 to Liverpool without their one player who usually scores goals

    But then again, we are Arsenal and anything is possible. On the other hand, I don’t think Spuds and Chelsea will both win both of their games. This weekend they both have away games against teams who are still not completely safe and who have been getting decent results in the last few games. AND Chelski got Everton in the last round in what might be their last game under Moyes.

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    • Newcastle probably thought they were safe when they played against Liverpool. If they still need points to survive (and we can have a massive say in that by beating Wigan), it could be a very tough game.

      I’m not holding my breath in terms of Everton beating Chelsea on the final day. Everton’s season will end just like every other season ended during Moyes’ reign–with disappointment and without a trophy.

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    • If we beat Wigan they should get relegated, which will mean that Newcastle have nothing left to play for in the final game… Fingers crossed!

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  16. I can’t set my hopes entirely on us getting 6pts,i just hope spurds will drop sum points,especially against stoke

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  17. Christ, if we beat Wigan, we’re still only half way. How am I supposed to concentrate on exams with all this shit going on.

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    • If we beat Wigan and Spurs fail to win against Stoke then 4th is assured. Even a draw for Spurs and a win for us will ensure that Spurs won’t get 4th.

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      • If we beat Wigan and lose against Newcastle,
        and Spurs draw against Stoke and beat Sunderland
        Both teams will be on 70 and we get fourth on Goal Difference.

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  18. I think 4 points is very realistic for us and the same applies to at least one other team between the twats and fannies. But nothing should stop us from going for 6 points – just cannon the mother f’ers and let us get on with 2013/14 already.

    Newcastle away on the last day is going to be a cracker.

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  19. I wished for a draw in last night’s game between ****whoever that it was***the lot*. Yet, still can’t find any staisfaction! What the f***. This is Arsenal? Used to be enjoyable.

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  20. Sunday we had to hope for a United Win, yesterday we had to hope for a chelsea win and on saturday we have to hope for a Stoke win. Never ever put ourselfs in this posistion ever again please.

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    • Well actually Stoke don’t have to win , a draw would be enough for us to get fourth, PROVIDED we beat Wigan at home.

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  21. For the 6 games remaining for Chelsea, Arsenal and Spurs there are 729 different combinations of results.

    Arsenal Qualify in 530 of them.
    Spurs Qualify in 221 of them.
    Chelsea Qualify in 707 of them.

    Based on current odds for each of those games that gives Arsenal a 76% chance of qualification and about 25% chance of getting 3rd place.

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  22. Moyes to the Glazerdome. Good! I was a little worried at how many were tipping him to succeed AW when he’s clearly basically the poor man’s answer to AW – overachieve on a tiny budget without winning anything and all that. But without the charm or sophistication. He’s *perfect* for United and will hopefully take them back to the days of Docherty, Sexton and Atkinson where the occasional cup run was the highlight of the year for them.

    I can’t help but think the Glazers will restrict Moyes in a way that would have been impossible with Demento, who knew where the bodies were buried and would have gone and dug them up if they’d have interfered too much. God, I hope so, anyhow.

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    • Your problem, Sam, is that you still think that English football works like it did in the Seventies and Eighties. It doesn’t.

      With Man United’s massive resources they are almost guaranteed to finish at least third. Money is king now. With all the plaudits handed out to Ferguson, nobody wanted to point out that the creation of the Premier League was his greatest asset: it made it impossible for all but a tiny handfull of clubs to challenge United.

      Moyes will buy trophies just like Ferguson did. It just remains to be seen whether or not Moyes will be as continually successful as his Scottish compatriot.

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      • Well… Utd’s share price dropped by 5% yesterday when Demento’s retirement was announced.

        It’ll drop again over the summer if Moyes buys conservatively – Ferguson could do that but the market was confident he’d win in any event, Moyes won’t have that luxury.

        It’ll drop yet again if Moyes’ United makes a crappy start to next season, like Everton habitually have done under Moyes.

        That will all restrict the budget Moyes has to rebuild the rather patchy looking squad at the Glazerdome (but that’s OK – look at the miracles he worked at Everton with restricted budgets!).

        Of course the Glazers are no fools, they might just give Moyes a big fuck-off sack of money to keep Mourhino at bay and ensure that top 3 finish (about which you are totally right, all things being equal). But if they think Moyes can win on a budget and get greedy with the cash reserves – also a possibility, given the fact that they have starved united of cash and forced the ronaldo sale – then it could get interesting.

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        • Sam,
          It’s a poisoned chalice, Moyles has to find instant replacements for 7 or 8 manure players this summer and his style of very basic no nonsense big man in the middle football will not sit kindly with the Surrey fan base used to open counterattack winger type play.

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        • I think the fact of Ferguson being an old school, ignorant,shouvenist fuck, will work to our benefit this time[It was him who recommended Moyes].

          The other runner up to replace ferguson was Jurgen Klopp who would have been great in the short & long term for Man utd.

          Please any one tell me in what universe is DM better than JK.

          I think DM is going to do well at first because he is going to take it game by game but he will run out of gas around Christmas forcing the Man utd board to sack him and Ferguson to make shock return to foot ball.

          I also am certain that he will buy Fellani in the summer.
          He might also be keen to win one or both of the pity throphies to better his CV.

          He won’t win the CL or PL, He just………….won’t.

          Man utd players will try to act as though everything is smooth and perfect, with every goal they celebrate around christmas. [because they are full of shit]

          It’s gonna be bumpy, very bumpy.

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      • Exactly, money is directly correlated with success. You only need to look as far as $hitty and P$G to see that.

        Obviously, there is the odd anomaly like Dortmund and the old Arsenal, but the way forward for this club is to attain tangible success (cups) and turn that into money through sponsorships and TV deals etc.

        The Puma deal (provided it is real) is a great example of this and shows us how United have been so successful over the past however many years. Off-field finances are just as important as what the club produces.

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    • Wigan can still reach Stokes total I know it will also take a 13 goal swing as well but Stoke will have to take this into account when facing spurs on Sunday.

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      • So if Spurs win 13-0 on Sunday they’ll wipe out our goal difference advantage but Stoke might go down? I’m not sure how to feel about that.

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  23. Chelsea looked tired against Sp*rs, so they might struggle against a youthful Villa. Also Everton would be giving a farewell to Moyes, so that is another tricky fixture for them. I think they’ll get at-most 4 points from those two.
    For Sp*rs, they have the easiest path. Orcs are almost safe, so they would be pushovers. Di Cannio may put up a fight, but his squad is dire. So 6 points for them.
    For us, frankly I don’t know. Wigan would be leggy after their FA Final win/defeat against City. Newcastle will be smug after having escaped relegation to French Ligue 2, so maybe 6 points. Add a swing of +4 GD and we are third!
    BTW did anyone notice the BBC webpage today resembles ManUre web-page. They can’t seem to get over the fact that Fergie is retiring.

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    • Don’t forget that Chelsea have yet another midweek tie next week–in Amsterdam–and if they win that game and become Europa League champions, they’ll probably celebrate or something and forget they have to play Everton.

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      • Hopefully Lord Rafa loses the last match just to spite those filthy ingrates that call themselves Chelsea fans.

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  24. Whatever happens I just don’t want to go to Newcastle needing a win. My nerves won’t take it and not confident we can handle that pressure as a team.
    Having said that I think spurs will draw with stoke we will beat Wigan 1 0 and we can all enjoy the last day of the season at spurs expense.

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  25. I’ve got a feeling that Tuesday we will be the day we do it. Like Volders I think Spurs will drop points at Stoke. A victory against a shagged-out (and thrashed by Man City) Wigan will seal it.

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  26. Moyes was just appointed as ManUtd manager – does this means Everton are gonna be a pushover – without Moyes. Hope the interim manager would bring the best out of the lads to at least secure a draw.

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  27. Having looked through the history of the PL… no team that gains 70 points from the season has even not gained Champions League. If Tottenham get 70 but we win both our games, they’d be the first. I’m sure that means something…

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  28. By the time Wigan plays Arsenal, it would have been their 4th Match in 10 days. they cannot cope with that kind of intensity. It is a great time to play them.

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  29. I can not see Spuds beating Stoke because this is their last home game and possibly Pullis as well and after a poor season they will want to give their fans some hope for mext season. We should get 3 points from Wigan hence by Tuesday night it could be over other than the Chelsea result might allow us 3rd.

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  30. It’s very much up in the air as all 3 London teams have relegation threatened teams to play. Exciting stuff, but I sense St. Totteringham’s Day is nigh.

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  31. We need to put our best line up against wigan as that is our most crucial match.wigan will come guns blazing and they wil leave huge spaces behind,poldi is not fit enough and this is the kind of match theo feeds on he needs to play striker as wigan wil play a high line.ox and gevais will battle it out 4 the RW

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    • 12 months ago none of us would ever have even considered Van Judas in a Manure shirt.I don’t like that granny-shagging twat but i don’t think even the most ardent gooner could deny that he’d improve us.

      From a purely logical perspective,Shrek coming here would make sense.He’s currently a striker who hasn’t really played up front for a couple of years,he won’t get on with the new manager,he wanted to leave in 2010,he’ll still be in the English league playing with future England stars like Jack,Ox,Gibbo and Theo,he’d be the main man here and would be able to play in his preferred position as a lne striker,in one of the few top teams in England with the soon to be Unanimously the best manager in the league.He’d need to take a pay cut as we’d probably offer him 150k at most.

      Still don’t want him,would prefer if we paid 5-10 million extra for someone like Lewandowski(in our dreams,i know).

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      • Pffft. As long as he didn’t require 200 a week I’d take him. He’s still got plenty of years in him and even with bad service he is at minimum a “1 in every 2” striker.

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      • Not in my lifetime please
        I remember that dive that cost us the invincible run so fuck him and all who support him he is mercanery and a cunt who loves slappers over real woman

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    • its the other cunt P.Morgan who start this shit when he tweet that Rooney would be welcome at arsenal and he would stop calling him shreck

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  32. Fancy Arsenal to beat Wigan comfortably, but if Spurs win at the weekend too then the pressure is really on and I fancy Arsenal to bottle it against Newcastle. For that reason, I think it’s in Spurs hands, not ours.

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    • Astro
      Spurs built the bottle factory, then crashed a band wagon into it.
      In a spiral.

      Spurs play on Sunday – after Chelsea on Saturday. Both with potentially tricky away fixtures.
      If either of the mooks drop 2 points it massively increases the likelyhood of us staying in top 4 (or ever 3rd).
      Arsenal have a better chance against Wigan on Tuesday night.
      If we need 3 points at Newcastle on the final day, so be it.

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    • Spurs dropped a 13 point lead last season.

      Spurs dropped a 7 point lead two months ago.

      They can beat Stoke and we can lose to Wigan.

      We’ll still finish above them. Bottlers.

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  33. I can’t forget the 7-3 victory at the Grove over Newcastle just before New Year: Walcott playing through the middle with a brilliant hat-trick, Podolski with a goal playing on the left, 2 goals for Giroud as a sub (he hit the bar with the last kick of the game, too, and he’s back for the Newcastle game in 2 weeks), and one from the Ox. Cazorla and Wilshere bossed the midfield (and Ramsey only came on as a sub). If we can play like that on the last day of the season (and keep up the improved defence into the bargain), I shall be happy.

    We beat Wigan away 0-1 just before Christmas, too, though that was a much tighter affair (Arteta penalty). We need to be more ruthless than that next Tuesday.

    No need to look at the Chavs and the Spuds, just win the games. A few extra goals would be the icing on the cake. COYR!!!

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  34. Guys whats Arsenal’s revenue predicitions for 2014?

    Atm i believe our revenue per year is 290m so with tv rights 35m + emirates deal 30m + puma kit deal 30m I believe our revenue with be almost 400m!!

    This cant possible be right, could it???

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  35. Its a sad day when I want that bunch of egg chasing neanderthals to get a win or even a draw. I’ll celebrate but then have to have a shower. A win over Wigan and it’s happy St Totteringhams Day again plus I get to enforce my ‘shirt of hurt’ bet with the lumbering Spud at work.

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