Arsenal 1-0 Newcastle: By the Numbers

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Premier League Stats

2 – Number of goalless draws Leicester have this season
3 – Consecutive matches Leicester have been held scoreless (fewest in the League)
10 – Matches which Newcastle have been held scoreless this season (most in the League)
3 – Consecutive 0-1 losses for Newcastle
1 – Save by Petr Cech off a Newcastle “big chance” to deny them a goal and keep his 171st clean sheet, while also simultaneously leaving Steve McLaren “scratching his head”
9 – Clean sheets by Arsenal this season (2nd behind Man U who have 10)
45 – Percent of Arsenal’s matches that the Gunners have kept a clean sheet this season
34 – Percent of Arsenal’s matches last season that the Gunners kept a clean sheet
3 – Number of clean sheet Arsenal have kept since Coquelin was injured 7 games ago
43 – Percent of Arsenal’s matches that have ended in a clean sheet after Coquelin’s injury (3/7 – we don’t count the West Brom match because he was injured in that match)
50 – Percent of Arsenal’s matches that ended in a clean sheet while Coquelin was available (6/12 – same as above)
0.75 – Goals allowed per game with Coquelin
1 – Goals allowed per game without Coquelin
45 – Percent of tackles successful with Coquelin
41 – Percent of tackles successful without Coquelin
20 – Interceptions per game with Coquelin
17 – Interceptions per game without Coquelin
15 – Chances created per game with Coquelin/Cazorla
10 – Chances created per game without Coquelin/Cazorla (remember when people were all “Coquelin stifles Arsenal’s attack!”)
55 – Percent of possession Arsenal have had on average all season with or without Coquelin
7 – Number of games that Arsenal have played without Coquelin
100  – Percent chance that 7 games is too small a sample to say anything conclusive about the Flamini-Ramsey partnership but I give you the stats anyway because everyone likes to argue about this kind of stuff

How Arsenal Are Top of the League

2.17 – Points per game by Arsenal this season against “top 1/3” teams (best in the League)
1.83 – PPG by Tottenham this season against “top 1/3” teams (2nd, in Arsenal’s shadow, this season)
0.17 – PPG by Crystal Palace this season against “top 1/3” teams (worst in the League)
2.11 – Points per game by Arsenal this season against “bottom 1/3” teams (10th in the League)
2.75 – Points per game by Man City this season against “bottom 1/3” teams (best in the League)
2.62 – Points per game by Arsenal last season against “bottom 1/3” teams (best in the League last season and the season before, BTW)
1.17 – Points per game by Arsenal last season against “top 1/3” teams (6th in the League, Man U and Man City topped, with 1.75PPG, Chelsea was 3rd)

What Arsenal’s trend of PPG against top and bottom teams looks like over the last 6 seasons:

top-bottom

McLaren’s Itchy Head

McLaren felt like his team deserved something from the game, as do most managers after the match. But did Newcastle best Arsenal?

It was pretty tight and Arsenal did let Newcastle have more chances in prime areas than we are used to seeing from the Gunners. Petr Cech even had to make a save off of a big chance by Wijnaldum. But the numbers do look fairly even and Big Mc might have a bit of a case:

Arsenal-Newcastle

I suspect Newcastle should feel a bit like they could have gotten a point out of this match. Considering the fact that they got their shots off in dangerous areas.

As an aside, that last line, Expected Goals (xG), is a bit of a debated topic and there are two main pieces I would suggest reading: This very detailed explanation (warning, Spurs site) and this piece complaining about the model. Personally, I fall on the side of making a model very simple so that everyone can understand it. MCofA is the guy who invented xG (I think!) and so I included his numbers as a contrast to mine.

Think of expected goals as “how many goals a team would have scored if they took those same shots from that same place, based on the averages other teams have scored off those same types of shots”.

I’m probably going to get a lot of flack for that definition because their models are very complicated. Mine isn’t.

Ramsey

-Led both teams with 67/76 passing (Tiote was second with 64/64)
-Was second for both teams with 24/29 passing in the final 1/3 (Özil #1)
-Led Arsenal with 3/4 dribbling (tied with Özil) and had 2 successful dribbles in the Newcastle 18 yard box (Özil had 1 — both of these are unusual, you don’t see a lot of successful dribbles in the 18)
-Led Arsenal with 7 ball recoveries (Özil was tied for 2nd with 6)
-Led Arsenal with 10 attempted tackles, but only won 3 (Flamini led Arsenal with 6/9 tackles)
-Led Arsenal with 2 shots on target, Arsenal only had 3 shots on target the whole game (Giroud had 5 shots, got zero on target, had one go out for a throw in)
-Created 2 chances for teammates, both from open play (the same number as Özil but Özil also created 2 chances from set plays (corners) for a total of 4 chances created)
-Had just 1 interception (tied with Özil, Mertesacker, Giroud, and Campbell)
-Nearly pulled his groin going for a side-heel flick pass

@7amkickoff

Sources: 442 Stats Zone app, my database, Statto.com, and other sites as linked

Qq

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