Arsenal 0-0 Hull plus Mike Dean’s unusual record: by the numbers

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Football is a funny old game. In one match, your team can struggle to get a shot on target until the 69th minute and score on your first shot on target. In the next match, your team can get their first shot on goal in 11th minute, get 24 total shots, 11 on target, and not score a single goal.

But actually, it’s not that funny. It’s a truth of probability that is often obfuscated by the big and fancy stats. Just like rolling a 7 with a pair of dice is a 16.7% probability, over a season, a team will probably finish more than 9.5% of their chances. Arsenal are currently finishing… 11% of their shots in all competitions. But that doesn’t mean that every game or every roll of dice will feature an 11% conversion. If it had, Arsenal would have scored 2.64 goals today against Hull and Craps would be a very boring game with every 6th roll coming up 7.

11% isn’t horrible and is Arsenal’s rate in ALL competitions. In the League, Leicester are converting 11.7% if we remove their 8 penalties and Man City just 10%. Of course, in the League, Arsenal are converting… ugh 8.7%.

Arsene knows… As Wenger said today after the FA Cup match against Hull:

We need to be more efficient in the final third, because today we had more than 70 per cent possession and we will not have that on Tuesday night (against Barcelona). That means we’ll have to be more efficient with much less of the ball.

More efficiency please!

As for the FA Cup match against Hull today, there were some positives to take out of the game along with some negatives. Here they are in classic 7amkickoff Index style:

The Good…

– Walcott shots (led all players)
– Welbeck shots (2nd among all players)
– Welbeck and Walcott shots on target (3 each, led all players)
– Calum Chambers key passes (led all players)
3 – Calum Chambers successful crosses (3/6, led all players)
2 – Calum Chambers crosses that were key passes
101 – Calum Chambers passes (led all players)
97 – Elneny passes (2nd among all players)
48 – Calum Chambers passes in the Hull final 1/3 (led all players)
47 – Elneny passes in the Hull final 1/3 (2nd among all players)
5 – Dribbles by Alexis (of 5, led all players)
4 – Dribbles by Welbeck (of 5, 2nd)
3 – Dribbles by Chambers
2013 – The last time Arsenal lost in the FA Cup was February 2013
14 – Consecutive wins in the FA Cup (not a record)
15 – Match undefeated streak in the FA Cup (not a record)

The Bad…

– Shots on target by Alexis in the last 3 games
11 – Shots Alexis has taken in the last 3 games
33 – Percent of Alexis’ shots that have been on target for Arsenal this season (29/89)
42 – Percent of Alexis’ shots that were on target for Arsenal last season (72/171)
100 – Percent chance Alexis looked shot today
100 – Percent chance that Alexis will be played on Tuesday
100 – Percent of himself he will give in that match

The Ugly…

12 – Turnovers by Danny Welbeck (7 dispossessed, 5 poor first touch — led all players)
– Turnovers by Danny Welbeck in the Hull City 18 yard box
– “Turnover” by Danny Welbeck in the Hull City 18 yard box that looked like a stonewall penalty to me
– Turnovers by Walcott, none of which were stonewall penalties
4 – Turnovers by Calum Chambers
– Turnovers by Calum Chambers in the Hull City 18 yard box
– “Turnover” by Calum Chambers in the Hull City 18 yard box that looked like a stonewall penalty to me
– “Turnover” by Harry Maguire in the Arsenal 18 yard box that also looked like a stonewall penalty to me
57 – Arsenal Matches Mike Dean has refereed
9 – Total penalties he has awarded in all of those 57 matches (3 for Arsenal, 6 for Arsenal’s opponents)
60 – Chelsea matches Mike Dean has refereed
20 – Total penalties he has awarded in those Chelsea matches (11 for Chelsea, 9 for the opposition)
51 – Man U matches Mike Dean has refereed
24 – Total penalties he has awarded in those Man U matches (16 for United, 8 for the opposition)
33 – Percent chance that Mike Dean will award a penalty in a Chelsea match
47 – Percent chance that Mike Dean will award a penalty in a Man U match
16 – Percent chance that Mike Dean will award a penalty in an Arsenal match
5 – Percent chance that Mike Dean will award a penalty for Arsenal in an Arsenal match
31 – Percent chance Mike Dean will award a penalty for Man U in a Man U match
31 – Percent chance Mike Dean will award a penalty in any match he has ever refereed
20 – Percent chance that Howard Webb would award a penalty in any match he had ever refereed
23 – Percent chance that Howard Webb would award a penalty in an Arsenal match
5 – Percent chance that Howard Webb would award Arsenal a penalty in an Arsenal match 
24 – Percent chance that Mark Clattenburg will award a penalty in any match he has ever refereed
29 – Percent chance that Clattenburg would award a penalty in any Arsenal match he has ever refereed
100 – Percent chance that if Clattenburg awards a penalty, it will be for Arsenal¹

@7amkickoff

Sources: match info, whoscored.com; shots info, Espn.com; referee info, transfermarkt.com

¹Clattenburg has refereed 34 Arsenal matches and awarded 10 penalties; all of them have been given to Arsenal. All referee data from Transfermarkt.co.uk. “Percent chance” is not meant to express true probability but rather simply the number of penalties divided by the number of games played. 7amkickoff is not responsible for errors on Transfermarkt. Your memory may vary. Prices and availability subject to change. This product not sold in stores. Act now. Three easy payments. Limited supplies.

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