West Ham 0-0 Arsenal: By the Numb

19

Weird stats against West Ham

4 – Offsides called on Arnautovich
3 – Number of times Jack Wilshere was fouled (that were called)
9 – Number of total fouls by West Ham in this match
92 – Successful pass rate by Wilshere, Koscielny, and Monreal (led all players)
15 – Bad passes by Wilshere, Koscielny, and Monreal combined (completed 166/181)
15 – Bad passes by Xhaka (completed 88/103)

5 – Attempted tackles by Ainsley Maitland-Niles
0 – Successful tackles (he was dribbled 5 times)
3 – Combined successful tackles by Lanzini, Obiang, and Noble
16 – Attempted tackles by Lanzini, Obiang, and Noble (they were dribbled 13 times combined)
16 – Successful dribbles by Arsenal v. West Ham
9.5 – Dribbles per game average by Arsenal this season
4 – Successful dribbles by Wilshere (of 4 attempted)
4 – Successful dribbles by Iwobi (of 5 attempted)
3 – Successful dribbles by Alexis (of 4 attempted)
1 – Successful substitution of Alexis by Arsene Wenger
3 – Matches since Ozil has had an assist or scored a goal
2 – Points Arsenal have taken from those matches
5 – Assists (along with 2 goals) Ozil provided in his previous 5 matches
12 – Points Arsenal took in those matches

22 – Shots by Arsenal in this match
3 – Shots on target by Arsenal in this match
2 – Shots on target from outside the 18 yard box (Xhaka and Alexis)
1 – Shot on target from inside the 18 yard box (Alexis)
0.16 – Combined 7am expected goals for all shots on target by Arsenal (my formula is weird but that’s what it generated)
11 – Arsenal shots blocked by West Ham
0.75 – 7am expected goals for those 11 blocked shots
0.61 – 7am expected goals from the 11 shots that weren’t blocked
1.36 – Total 7am expected goals for Arsenal in this match*
0 – Shots West Ham got on target
0 – Big chances created by West Ham and Arsenal combined (not sure how that Chicharito shot didn’t get marked as a Big Chance but whatever)

104 – Number of shots Arsenal have taken (Premier League only) against their opponents since beating Tottenham 2-0
11.66 – 7amkickoff expected goals total for those 104 shots (11% expected conversion)
8 – Actual goals scored by Arsenal (8% actual conversion)
83 – Shots Arsenal have taken against in the four matches NOT counting the 5-0 win over Huddersfield
7.81 – 7am xG in those four matches (9% expected conversion against Bayernley, ManUre, Soton, and Wham)
3 – Actual goals scored by Arsenal in those four matches (4% actual conversion)
307 – Shots taken by Man City this season (leads the League)
51 – Goals scored by Man City this season (excludes OG, leads the League)
16.6 – Percent Man City conversion rate this season (51/307)
302 – Shots taken by Arsenal this season (2nd in the League)
30 – Goals scored by Arsenal this season (5th in the League)
10 – Percent Arsenal conversion rate this season)
10 – Percent League average conversion rate this season
46 – Big Chances Arsenal have created this season (2nd most in the League)
15 – Big chances scored by Arsenal this season (tied for 5th)
33 – Percent of big chances Arsenal are converting (3rd worst)
45 – Percent of big chances all teams are converting this season
56 – Percent of big chances that Man City have converted this season (leads the League)
8 – Number of additional goals Arsenal would have scored if they had converted their big chances at the same rate as the League average
8 – Number of goals Arsenal are below their 7amxG difference (3rd worst underperforming team in the League)
0 – Big chances created by Arsenal in the last two matches

As requested – Graphics!

This first graphic shows each of the teams in the Premier League ranked by their expected goal difference (using my own formula). Just a reminder that expected goals, while it matches up pretty well to actual goals, is more just an indicator of shot quality. So, as you can see, Man City are still running away with the League.

Arsenal are leaders of the second group there but there really isn’t much difference between Arsenal, Spurs and Liverpool. Man U and Chelsea are just below them – both of these teams give up a lot of chances defensively and rely on extraordinarily high attacking conversion (United is 16%, 2nd best) and defensive conversion (United is just 5%, 2nd best) to get points. Conversion rates are a fickle mistress and there’s no telling if Chelsea and United can keep this pace up all year. Of course, I said the same about Leicester and they did.

This second graphic shows the same teams sorted by their 7amkickoff expected goals (left to right best to worst) but with their actual goals difference. Man City are simply dominating, while Arsenal, Liverpool, and Spurs are all underperforming relative to their shots taken. Stoke are in real danger of relegation this season: not only are they 5th worst in expected goals difference but they are 2nd worst in actual goal difference. If Palace reverts to the mean and starts picking up points and goals we could see Stoke relegated.

Burley are living the dream: they are banking on a Leicester City style block-party defense and currently have allowed the most shots in the League (277) but the opponents have only scored on 4% of those shots. I put that down to the fact that they have only allowed 22 Big Chances this season, 4th best in the League.

Arsenal create plenty of chances, they just need to start scoring the chances they are making.

@7amkickoff

Sources: my database, whoscored.com

*My formula counts all shots regardless of where they ended up. Against West Ham, Arsenal’s best shots were blocked but only by a small margin, mostly down to the fact that Giroud had two headers blocked in the prime area right in front of goal. That said, Arsenal didn’t create any clear cut chances and ended up taking 12 shots outside the box total. Those shots are very low percentage chances (3%) and explain why Arsenal, despite taking 22 shots, only had an expected goals of 1.36. To be fair, if you watched the match and expected Arsenal to score any goals, you were pretty optimistic.

Qq

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